Hollandia vs HBC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hollandia and 1.33 for HBC, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Hollandia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hollandia home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
HBC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hollandia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Hollandia and 1.33 for HBC, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hollandia win41%

Draw25%

HBC win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–08.9%
2–18.8%
0–17.9%
1–27.8%

Recent form

Hollandia

2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ACV · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Harkemase Boys · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HBC · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HBC · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Huizen · 3-1 (W)

HBC

2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hollandia · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hollandia · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Flevo Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flevo Boys · 3-1 (W)
2025-05-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Huizen · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · Hollandia 2-0 HBC (Derde Divisie - Relegation Round)
2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · Hollandia 1-0 HBC (Derde Divisie - Relegation Round)

Derde Divisie - Relegation Round table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ROHDA Raalte	34	20	7	7	27	67
1	Kloetinge	34	22	7	5	25	73
2	DVS 33 Ermelo	34	17	11	6	20	62
2	FC Lisse	34	20	8	6	34	68
3	Sparta Nijkerk	34	19	4	11	41	61
3	Vvsb	34	21	5	8	33	68
4	ADO '20	34	17	9	8	10	60
4	Rijnvogels	34	19	7	8	24	64
5	SC Genemuiden	34	17	5	12	9	56
5	Gemert	34	17	10	7	25	61
6	Staphorst	34	17	3	14	10	54
6	Roosendaal	34	15	9	10	13	54
7	Harkemase Boys	34	14	10	10	12	52
7	TOGB	34	15	8	11	3	53
8	Dovo	34	15	7	12	10	52
8	Zwaluwen	34	15	6	13	13	51
9	Eemdijk	34	14	8	12	9	50
9	Blauw Geel	34	14	6	14	2	48
10	VV Scherpenzeel	34	14	7	13	10	49
10	Noordwijk	34	12	8	14	5	44
11	Hoogeveen	34	14	6	14	-10	48
11	UDI '19	34	11	6	17	-17	39
12	Sportlust '46	34	14	5	15	2	47
12	UNA	34	10	8	16	-8	38
13	Hercules	34	13	5	16	-4	44
13	GOES	34	10	7	17	-18	37
14	Excelsior '31	34	12	4	18	-8	40
14	Groene Ster	34	10	6	18	-19	36
15	Huizen	34	11	7	16	-12	40
15	SteDoCo	34	10	4	20	-34	34
16	TEC	34	12	4	18	-16	40
16	SVV Scheveningen	34	9	5	20	-16	32
17	URK	34	8	7	19	-36	31
17	Meerssen	34	8	7	19	-23	31
18	Hsc 21	34	1	5	28	-74	8
18	ASWH	34	6	7	21	-42	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.