· Analysis updated 19:32 UTC
Holstein Kiel U19 vs BAK 07 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 1.64 for BAK 07 U19, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Holstein Kiel U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Holstein Kiel U19 win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holstein Kiel U19 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BAK 07 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holstein Kiel U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 1.64 for BAK 07 U19, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Holstein Kiel U19
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 4-3 (W)
BAK 07 U19
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Holstein Kiel U19 win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.