Holstein Kiel U19 vs Magdeburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 2.00 for Magdeburg U19, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Magdeburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Magdeburg U19 win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Holstein Kiel U19 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Magdeburg U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Holstein Kiel U19 win26%

Draw22%

Magdeburg U19 win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.5%
1–29.5%
0–17.0%
0–27.0%
2–16.4%

Recent form

Holstein Kiel U19

2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 4-3 (W)

Magdeburg U19

2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BAK 07 U19 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 U19 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2024-11-02T10:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel U19 1-6 Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2024-08-18T09:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel U19 0-9 Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-08-20T09:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel U19 5-4 Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-02-27T10:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel U19 0-4 Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2020-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel U19 0-1 Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2019-11-16T10:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel U19 2-3 Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Magdeburg U19 win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.