· Analysis updated 09:19 UTC
Holstein Kiel U19 vs St. Pauli U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 1.93 for St. Pauli U19, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives St. Pauli U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Pauli U19 win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holstein Kiel U19 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Pauli U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 1.93 for St. Pauli U19, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Holstein Kiel U19
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 4-3 (W)
St. Pauli U19
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Pauli U19 win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.