· Analysis updated 10:55 UTC
Holstein Kiel U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 2.10 for Wolfsburg U19, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Wolfsburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holstein Kiel U19 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wolfsburg U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wolfsburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Holstein Kiel U19 and 2.10 for Wolfsburg U19, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Holstein Kiel U19
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 4-3 (W)
Wolfsburg U19
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Preußen Münster U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn U19 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.