Holstein Kiel vs VfL Osnabrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.85 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Holstein Kiel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Holstein Kiel home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Osnabrück away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holstein Kiel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.85 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Holstein Kiel win39%

Draw22%

VfL Osnabrück win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.5%
1–27.8%
2–17.8%
2–27.2%
1–34.8%

Recent form

Holstein Kiel

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viborg · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-2 (L)

VfL Osnabrück

2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	8	7	1	0	11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	5	3	0	10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	4	3	1	9	15
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	4	3	1	4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	4	2	2	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	8	4	1	3	3	13
7	FC St. Pauli	8	2	5	1	2	11
8	Arminia Bielefeld	8	3	2	3	0	11
9	Energie Cottbus	8	2	3	3	-1	9
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	2	2	4	-4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Karlsruher SC	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	2	1	5	-2	7
16	VfL Bochum	8	2	1	5	-4	7
17	SV Darmstadt 98	8	2	1	5	-10	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	0	5	3	-4	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.