· Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Holstein Kiel vs Viborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.38 for Viborg, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Holstein Kiel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Holstein Kiel win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holstein Kiel home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Viborg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holstein Kiel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.38 for Viborg, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Holstein Kiel
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viborg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 0-2 (L)
Viborg
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Brabrand · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Silkeborg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyngby · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Holstein Kiel win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.