· Analysis updated 19:13 UTC
Holstein Kiel W vs Magdeburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Holstein Kiel W and 1.43 for Magdeburg W, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Magdeburg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holstein Kiel W home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Magdeburg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Holstein Kiel W and 1.43 for Magdeburg W, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Holstein Kiel W
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg W · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meppen W · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Monchengladbach W · 2-3 (L)
- 2022-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum W · 1-2 (L)
Magdeburg W
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel W · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gütersloh W · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel W 0-3 Magdeburg W (DFB Pokal - Women)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.