· Analysis updated 23:26 UTC
Holstein Kiel W vs Meppen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Holstein Kiel W and 1.48 for Meppen W, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Meppen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holstein Kiel W home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Meppen W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Meppen W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Holstein Kiel W and 1.48 for Meppen W, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Holstein Kiel W
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg W · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meppen W · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Monchengladbach W · 2-3 (L)
- 2022-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum W · 1-2 (L)
Meppen W
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Carl Zeiss Jena W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGS Essen W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Sand W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Berlin W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · Holstein Kiel W 0-1 Meppen W (DFB Pokal - Women)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.