· Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
Holywell vs Airbus UK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Holywell and 3.00 for Airbus UK, a combined total of 4.22. That distribution gives Airbus UK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Airbus UK win
73.0% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holywell home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Airbus UK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Airbus UK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 13% / 14% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Holywell and 3.00 for Airbus UK, a combined 4.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–26.6%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–46.0%
Recent form
Holywell
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Haverfordwest County AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Colwyn Bay · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trefelin · 1-1 (D)
Airbus UK
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Airbus UK win, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.