Holywell vs Caernarfon Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Holywell and 2.70 for Caernarfon Town, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Caernarfon Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Caernarfon Town win

76.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 2.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Holywell home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caernarfon Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caernarfon Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 14% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Holywell and 2.70 for Caernarfon Town, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Holywell win9%

Draw14%

Caernarfon Town win77%

Double chance 1X

23%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–210.7%
0–39.7%
1–28.9%
1–38.0%
0–18.0%

Recent form

Holywell

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Haverfordwest County AFC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Colwyn Bay · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trefelin · 1-1 (D)

Caernarfon Town

2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-1 (W)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Llandudno · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ammanford AFC · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	13	12	1	0	38	37
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	10	1	2	21	31
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	8	2	3	22	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	8	1	4	7	25
6	Barry Town	13	8	1	4	5	25
7	Cardiff MET	13	6	3	4	8	21
8	Airbus UK	13	7	0	6	7	21
9	Cambrian & Clydach	13	5	3	5	-12	18
10	Llandudno	13	5	1	7	-1	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	3	3	7	-10	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	3	1	9	-11	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	2	3	8	-22	9
14	Flint Town United	13	2	2	9	-13	8
15	Trefelin	13	1	3	9	-23	6
16	Holywell	13	0	2	11	-30	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Caernarfon Town win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.