· Analysis updated 15:44 UTC
Holywell vs Mold Alexandra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Holywell and 2.50 for Mold Alexandra, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Holywell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Holywell win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holywell home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mold Alexandra away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holywell to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 17% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Holywell and 2.50 for Mold Alexandra, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–25.7%
- 3–25.7%
- 2–34.8%
- 3–34.8%
- 2–14.6%
Recent form
Holywell
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Haverfordwest County AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Colwyn Bay · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Trefelin · 1-1 (D)
Mold Alexandra
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Brickfield Rangers · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Newtown AFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bala Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Llanuwchllyn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gresford Athletic · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Holywell win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.