Jalan Besar Stadium · Referee J. Foo · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Home United vs Young Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Home United and 1.41 for Young Lions, a combined total of 4.41. That distribution gives Home United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home United win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Home United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Home United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Home United and 1.41 for Young Lions, a combined 4.41 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 72%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 4–15.8%
- 3–05.5%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
Home United
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hougang United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
Young Lions
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home United win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.