Homeboyz vs AFC Leopards Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Homeboyz and 1.17 for AFC Leopards, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Homeboyz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Homeboyz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Homeboyz and 1.17 for AFC Leopards, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 67% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Homeboyz win40%

Draw27%

AFC Leopards win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–010.9%
0–19.6%
2–18.5%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Homeboyz

2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Leopards · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Murang'a SEAL · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 0-1 (L)

AFC Leopards

2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidco United · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Homeboyz · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.