· Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Hong Kong U17 vs Iraq U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Hong Kong U17 and 1.68 for Iraq U17, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Iraq U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hong Kong U17 home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Iraq U17 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iraq U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Hong Kong U17 and 1.68 for Iraq U17, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Hong Kong U17
- 2025-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs N. Mariana Islands U17 · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia U17 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Macau U17 · 2-0 (W)
Iraq U17
- 2025-11-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Australia U17 · 3-3 (D)
- 2025-11-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan U17 · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jordan U17 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines U17 · 3-2 (W)
- 2024-10-27T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan U17 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.