· Analysis updated 18:29 UTC
Hong Kong vs Cambodia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hong Kong and 1.33 for Cambodia, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Hong Kong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hong Kong win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hong Kong home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambodia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Hong Kong
- 2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Laos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mongolia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs India · 1-2 (L)
Cambodia
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong 0-2 Cambodia (Friendlies)
- 2025-11-13T12:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong 1-1 Cambodia (Friendlies)
- 2024-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong 3-0 Cambodia (Friendlies)
- 2023-09-07T12:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong 1-1 Cambodia (Friendlies)
- 2022-06-11T11:30:00.000Z · Hong Kong 3-0 Cambodia (Asian Cup - Qualification)
- 2019-11-19T12:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong 2-0 Cambodia (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2019-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · Hong Kong 1-1 Cambodia (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hong Kong win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.