Mong Kok Stadium · Referee Chae Sang-Hyeop · Analysis updated 10:25 UTC
Hong Kong vs Chinese Taipei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Hong Kong and 1.03 for Chinese Taipei, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Hong Kong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hong Kong win
68.0% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hong Kong home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chinese Taipei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hong Kong to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Hong Kong and 1.03 for Chinese Taipei, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Hong Kong
- 2026-09-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Laos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mongolia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs India · 1-2 (L)
Chinese Taipei
- 2026-03-31T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sri Lanka · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Turkmenistan · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-10-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hong Kong win, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.