Nagaragawa Stadium · Analysis updated 14:10 UTC
Hong Kong W vs Philippines W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Hong Kong W and 2.35 for Philippines W, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Philippines W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Philippines W win
77.8% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hong Kong W home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Philippines W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philippines W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 7% / 15% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Hong Kong W and 2.35 for Philippines W, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–215.2%
- 0–112.9%
- 0–311.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.57 (model 61.8% vs market 57.8%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.57 | 57.8% | 61.8% | 1.62 | +4.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 4.75 | 20.1% | 22.2% | 4.50 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 15.2% | 15.3% | 6.54 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.17 | 77.8% | 77.8% | 1.29 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 13.00 | 7.0% | 6.9% | 14.49 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.02 | 93.4% | 93.1% | 1.07 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 86.6% | 84.7% | 1.18 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 42.2% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hong Kong W
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-06-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji W · 3-2 (W)
Philippines W
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Albion San Diego W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong W 0-2 Philippines W (Asian Games Women)
- 2025-07-05T09:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong W 0-1 Philippines W (Asian Cup Women - Qualification)
- 2023-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong W 0-4 Philippines W (Olympics Women - Qualification Asia)
- 2021-09-24T10:00:00.000Z · Hong Kong W 1-2 Philippines W (Asian Cup Women - Qualification)
Asian Games Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 |
| 2 | Chinese Taipei W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 4 | Thailand W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 1 | Korea DPR W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 7 |
| 2 | South Korea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
| 4 | Bangladesh W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16 | 1 |
| 1 | China W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Hong Kong W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 2 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Philippines W win, at 77.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.