· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Ho Chi Minh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh and 1.15 for Ho Chi Minh, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ho Chi Minh away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hai Phong · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Viettel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bình Phước · 1-0 (W)
Ho Chi Minh
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Văn Hiến · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Binh Dinh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lam Dong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bắc Ninh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 0-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2025-10-19T12:15:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 0-0 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2025-04-25T12:15:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1-0 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2024-11-20T10:00:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2024-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2023-12-26T12:15:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1-0 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2023-05-27T11:00:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 4-3 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2022-09-14T11:00:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
- 2022-07-20T12:15:00.000Z · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2-1 Ho Chi Minh (V.League 1)
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Phu Dong | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ha Noi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Da Nang | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.