Sportplatz Hönggerberg · Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Höngg vs Widnau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Höngg and 1.41 for Widnau, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Höngg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Höngg win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Höngg home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Widnau away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Höngg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Höngg and 1.41 for Widnau, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Höngg
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Taverne · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tuggen · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eschen / Mauren · 1-1 (D)
Widnau
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Taverne · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Winterthur II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Taverne | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Baden | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Collina d'Oro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Kosova | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Locarno | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Mendrisio | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Winterthur II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Widnau | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Höngg win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.