Tapiolan Urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Honka W vs PK-35 Vantaa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Honka W and 1.83 for PK-35 Vantaa W, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Honka W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Honka W home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PK-35 Vantaa W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Honka W
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 Vantaa W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs PKKU W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs ONS W · 1-2 (L)
PK-35 Vantaa W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · Honka W 2-1 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · Honka W 2-0 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Honka W 0-1 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · Honka W 3-2 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2023-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · Honka W 3-0 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2023-07-22T15:00:00.000Z · Honka W 2-2 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2023-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · Honka W 0-0 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2022-06-17T16:00:00.000Z · Honka W 2-3 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2022-04-16T13:00:00.000Z · Honka W 1-2 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2021-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · Honka W 2-4 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.