Tapiolan Urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Honka W vs VIFK W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Honka W and 1.03 for VIFK W, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Honka W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Honka W win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Honka W home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VIFK W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Honka W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Honka W and 1.03 for VIFK W, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Honka W
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 Vantaa W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs PKKU W · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs ONS W · 1-2 (L)
VIFK W
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Honka W win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.