· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Hoogeveen vs SVZW Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Hoogeveen and 1.33 for SVZW, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Hoogeveen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hoogeveen win
63.0% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hoogeveen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SVZW away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoogeveen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Hoogeveen and 1.33 for SVZW, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Hoogeveen
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Genemuiden · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ADO '20 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior '31 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dovo · 4-1 (W)
SVZW
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Hollandia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Nijkerk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · Hoogeveen 4-3 SVZW (Derde Divisie)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hoogeveen win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.