Hoogeveen vs TEC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Hoogeveen and 3.05 for TEC, a combined total of 5.53. That distribution gives TEC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

TEC win

50.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 3.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hoogeveen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TEC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TEC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 32% / 17% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Hoogeveen and 3.05 for TEC, a combined 5.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hoogeveen win32%

Draw17%

TEC win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–35.8%
2–25.7%
3–34.8%
3–24.7%
1–34.7%

Recent form

Hoogeveen

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Genemuiden · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ADO '20 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior '31 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dovo · 4-1 (W)

TEC

2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 7-2 (W)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs JOS Watergraafsmeer · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercules · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 4-4 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ACV	10	7	2	1	16	23
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	20	25
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	7	2	1	8	23
2	FC Lisse	10	8	1	1	14	25
3	Harkemase Boys	10	7	2	1	6	23
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	14	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	7	1	2	19	22
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	13	20
5	SC Genemuiden	10	7	0	3	7	21
5	UDI '19	10	6	2	2	11	20
6	TEC	10	6	2	2	12	20
6	Dongen	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	Sportlust '46	10	5	4	1	4	19
7	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	-3	16
8	Purmersteijn	10	5	3	2	7	18
8	Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	-2	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	4	2	4	1	14
9	GOES	10	4	2	4	-6	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	4	1	5	1	13
10	Gemert	10	3	4	3	-3	13
11	ADO '20	10	4	1	5	-2	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	3	3	4	0	12
12	Hercules	10	3	1	6	-10	10
12	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Staphorst	10	2	3	5	-5	9
13	TOGB	10	2	3	5	-8	9
14	Eemdijk	9	2	1	6	-15	7
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	-10	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	1	3	6	-6	6
15	UNA	10	1	5	4	-4	8
16	Dovo	10	1	2	7	-13	5
16	Vvsb	10	2	2	6	-8	8
17	Hollandia	9	1	1	7	-11	4
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	-14	6
18	SVZW	10	0	1	9	-19	1
18	EVV	10	0	3	7	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TEC win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.