· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Hoogstraten vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Hoogstraten and 1.76 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Hoogstraten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hoogstraten home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoogstraten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Hoogstraten and 1.76 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Hoogstraten
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Merelbeke · 2-3 (L)
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heist · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Thes Sport · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Houtvenne · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.