England · Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central · Isthmian South Central - 3615:00

0 – 2

Saturday, 21 March 2026

Five Heads Park · Analysis updated 09:22 UTC

Horndean vs South Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Horndean and 1.94 for South Park, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives South Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

South Park win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Horndean home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Park away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Park to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Horndean and 1.94 for South Park, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Horndean win22%

Draw22%

South Park win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.8%
0–18.8%
0–28.5%
1–36.4%

Recent form

Horndean

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Littlehampton Town · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedfont Sports · 1-5 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascot United · 2-5 (L)
2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Portchester · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kingstonian · 2-1 (W)

South Park

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bognor Regis Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kingstonian · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fareham Town · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moneyfields · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Binfield · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Leatherhead	42	30	6	6	59	96
2	Westfield (Surrey)	42	26	6	10	35	84
3	Hanworth Villa	42	23	12	7	48	81
4	Moneyfields	42	25	5	12	32	80
5	AFC Portchester	42	22	7	13	27	73
6	Southall	42	18	11	13	10	65
7	Egham Town	42	17	13	12	15	64
8	Harrow Borough	42	18	10	14	0	64
9	Hayes & Yeading United	42	18	7	17	-16	61
10	South Park	42	17	8	17	-1	59
11	Bognor Regis Town	42	16	9	17	0	57
12	Hartley Wintney	42	15	11	16	0	56
13	Kingstonian	42	16	8	18	-7	56
14	Raynes Park Vale	42	14	11	17	-9	53
15	Bedfont Sports	42	13	11	18	-6	50
16	Ascot United	42	15	4	23	-4	49
17	Hendon	42	12	12	18	-12	48
18	Binfield	42	14	6	22	-13	48
19	Littlehampton Town	42	12	10	20	-23	46
20	Metropolitan Police	42	12	8	22	-25	44
21	Horndean	42	7	10	25	-64	31
22	Fareham Town	42	6	7	29	-46	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is South Park win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.