· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Hořovicko vs Petřín Plzeň Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Hořovicko and 1.43 for Petřín Plzeň, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Hořovicko the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petřín Plzeň away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hořovicko to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Hořovicko and 1.43 for Petřín Plzeň, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Hořovicko
Petřín Plzeň
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strakonice · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pribram · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyrsko · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Křimice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Doubravka · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Křimice | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Petřín Plzeň | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Spartak Pribram | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 24 |
| 4 | Komárov | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Hořovicko | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Táborsko II | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Spartak Soběslav | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | Doubravka | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Rokycany | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Strakonice | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Nyrsko | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -24 | 4 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.