· Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
Hořovicko vs Strakonice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Hořovicko and 1.70 for Strakonice, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Hořovicko the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hořovicko win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hořovicko to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.68 goals for Hořovicko and 1.70 for Strakonice, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 59% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Hořovicko
Strakonice
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavoj Český Krumlov · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Komárov · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rokycany · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pribram · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyrsko · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petřín Plzeň | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | Spartak Pribram | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Křimice | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Komárov | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Hořovicko | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Soběslav | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Táborsko II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Doubravka | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Rokycany | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 12 | Strakonice | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
| 14 | Nyrsko | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hořovicko win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.