Horriya vs Damascus Al-Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Horriya and 1.23 for Damascus Al-Ahli, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Damascus Al-Ahli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Horriya home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Damascus Al-Ahli away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Damascus Al-Ahli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Horriya and 1.23 for Damascus Al-Ahli, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Horriya win33%

Draw28%

Damascus Al-Ahli win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
0–112.0%
1–010.8%
0–09.8%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Horriya

2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shorta · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taliya · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tishreen · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 2-3 (L)
2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 0-1 (L)

Damascus Al-Ahli

2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Foutoua · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hottin · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaish · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Horriya · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jabala · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · Horriya 2-3 Damascus Al-Ahli (Premier League)
2026-03-05T12:00:00.000Z · Horriya 1-2 Damascus Al-Ahli (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ittihad	30	22	7	1	58	73
2	Wathba	30	22	6	2	43	72
3	Al Wahda	30	19	5	6	29	62
4	Al Karama	30	17	7	6	25	58
5	Al Taliya	30	12	11	7	8	47
6	Hottin	30	13	6	11	-4	45
7	Tishreen	30	11	11	8	8	44
8	Jaish	30	10	11	9	-7	41
9	Damascus Al-Ahli	30	11	6	13	-7	39
10	Horriya	30	10	5	15	-4	35
11	Shorta	30	8	9	13	-18	33
12	Foutoua	30	9	3	18	-17	30
13	Omaya SC	30	5	9	16	-17	24
14	Khan Shaykhun SC	30	6	5	19	-27	23
15	Jabala	30	6	4	20	-33	22
16	Al Shouleh	30	4	5	21	-37	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.