· Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Horriya vs Jabala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Horriya and 0.80 for Jabala, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Horriya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Horriya win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Horriya home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jabala away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Horriya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Horriya and 0.80 for Jabala, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Horriya
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shorta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taliya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tishreen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 0-1 (L)
Jabala
- 2026-07-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tishreen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Taliya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Damascus Al-Ahli · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ittihad | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 58 | 73 |
| 2 | Wathba | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 43 | 72 |
| 3 | Al Wahda | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Al Karama | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 58 |
| 5 | Al Taliya | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 47 |
| 6 | Hottin | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 45 |
| 7 | Tishreen | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 8 | Jaish | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | -7 | 41 |
| 9 | Damascus Al-Ahli | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 10 | Horriya | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -4 | 35 |
| 11 | Shorta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -18 | 33 |
| 12 | Foutoua | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | -17 | 30 |
| 13 | Omaya SC | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -17 | 24 |
| 14 | Khan Shaykhun SC | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -27 | 23 |
| 15 | Jabala | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -33 | 22 |
| 16 | Al Shouleh | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -37 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Horriya win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.