Shell Energy Stadium · Referee John Matto, USA · Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Houston Dash W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Houston Dash W and 0.67 for Chicago Red Stars W, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Houston Dash W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Houston Dash W win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Houston Dash W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Red Stars W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–012.6%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Houston Dash W
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Red Stars W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 1-1 (D)
Chicago Red Stars W
- 2026-08-30T00:55:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 5-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-03-23T19:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 2-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 0-2 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-07-06T17:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-08-06T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 0-3 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women - Challenge Cup)
- 2023-07-08T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-05-04T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women - Challenge Cup)
- 2023-04-01T18:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 2-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2022-09-18T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dash W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Utah Royals W | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 46 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Angel City W | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | North Carolina Courage W | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 42 |
| 9 | Seattle Reign FC W | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -10 | 29 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | -16 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 27 | 5 | 2 | 20 | -48 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Houston Dash W win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.