Houston Dash W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Houston Dash W and 1.52 for Portland Thorns W, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Portland Thorns W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Houston Dash W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portland Thorns W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portland Thorns W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Houston Dash W and 1.52 for Portland Thorns W, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Houston Dash W win37%

Draw24%

Portland Thorns W win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–17.5%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Houston Dash W

2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Red Stars W · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-09T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 1-1 (D)

Portland Thorns W

2026-09-27T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dash W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Red Stars W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Washington Spirit W · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	16	7	5	13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	11	3	14	-6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.