Houston Dash W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Houston Dash W and 1.38 for Washington Spirit W, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Houston Dash W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Houston Dash W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Washington Spirit W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Houston Dash W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Houston Dash W and 1.38 for Washington Spirit W, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Houston Dash W win39%

Draw25%

Washington Spirit W win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–08.7%
2–18.5%
0–18.4%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Houston Dash W

2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Red Stars W · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-09T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 1-1 (D)

Washington Spirit W

2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston Legacy W · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Thorns W · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	16	7	5	13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	11	3	14	-6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.