SaberCats Stadium · Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Houston Dynamo FC II vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Houston Dynamo FC II and 0.94 for Los Angeles FC II, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Houston Dynamo FC II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Houston Dynamo FC II win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Houston Dynamo FC II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Los Angeles FC II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Houston Dynamo FC II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Houston Dynamo FC II and 0.94 for Los Angeles FC II, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 53.9% vs market 39.5%, edge +14.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.5% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +14.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.8% | 27.0% | 3.70 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.9% | 1.34 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 47.9% | 47.9% | 2.09 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.0% | 1.37 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 60.5% | 46.1% | 2.17 | -14.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Houston Dynamo FC II
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting KC II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs North Texas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs North Texas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Austin II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United II · 0-2 (L)
Los Angeles FC II
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting KC II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventura County · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T02:30:00.000Z · A vs The Town · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Houston Dynamo FC II win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.