Shell Energy Stadium · Referee Rubiel Vazquez, USA · Analysis updated 06:55 UTC
Houston Dynamo vs San Diego Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.80 for San Diego, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Houston Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Houston Dynamo win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.6%
Why the model likes this
Houston Dynamo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Diego away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Houston Dynamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.80 for San Diego, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Houston Dynamo
- 2026-08-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Austin · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 1-1 (D)
San Diego
- 2026-08-16T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-13T02:15:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-10T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 7 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 19 |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.