BBVA Compass Stadium · Referee Tim Ford · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Houston Dynamo and 0.93 for Sporting Kansas City, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Houston Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Houston Dynamo win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Houston Dynamo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Kansas City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 49.4% vs market 44.3%, edge +5.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +5.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 41.2% | 42.0% | 2.38 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.9% | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.0% | 19.1% | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.0% | 81.0% | 1.23 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 58.2% | 58.1% | 1.72 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.7% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -5.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Houston Dynamo
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
Sporting Kansas City
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Sounders · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 2-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-10-19T01:00:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 0-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-06-01T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-3 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-12T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 2-1 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-02-25T01:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-1 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-11-27T00:00:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-09-24T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-2 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-07-09T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 2-2 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-05-11T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 1-0 Sporting Kansas City (US Open Cup)
- 2022-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · Houston Dynamo 0-0 Sporting Kansas City (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Houston Dynamo win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.