Oulunkylan tekojaarata · Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
HPS W vs VIFK W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for HPS W and 0.58 for VIFK W, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives HPS W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HPS W win
77.7% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HPS W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VIFK W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HPS W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 15% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for HPS W and 0.58 for VIFK W, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.7%
- 1–012.3%
- 3–011.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.1%
Recent form
HPS W
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HJK W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves W · 1-2 (L)
VIFK W
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HPS W win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.