FINEP Arena · Referee M. Radina · Analysis updated 19:42 UTC
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.48 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Hradec Králové the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hradec Králové home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Hradec Králové
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Artis · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kladno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Teplice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Příbram · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlin · 2-1 (W)
Sparta Praha
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysočina Jihlava · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 1-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2026-02-15T17:30:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 0-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2025-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2025-02-09T17:30:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 0-3 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2024-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 0-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2024-03-17T17:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 1-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2023-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 1-3 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2023-03-18T14:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 0-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
- 2022-10-01T17:00:00.000Z · Hradec Králové 1-2 Sparta Praha (Czech Liga)
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Teplice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Plzen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Artis | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.