· Analysis updated 07:39 UTC
HSC Hannover vs Hamburger SV II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for HSC Hannover and 1.27 for Hamburger SV II, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives HSC Hannover the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HSC Hannover home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HSC Hannover to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for HSC Hannover and 1.27 for Hamburger SV II, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 45.3% vs market 30.7%, edge +14.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 30.7% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +14.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.4% | 59.2% | 1.69 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.70 | 33.3% | 33.5% | 2.99 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 40.9% | 40.8% | 2.45 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.8% | 66.5% | 1.50 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 69.3% | 54.7% | 1.83 | -14.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
HSC Hannover
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs VfB Oldenburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Pauli II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schöningen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eimsbütteler TV · 1-2 (L)
Hamburger SV II
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HSC Hannover · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jeddeloh · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 17 | St. Pauli II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.