HT16 vs Teutonia Ottensen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for HT16 and 1.50 for Teutonia Ottensen, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives HT16 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

HT16 win

62.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.67 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HT16 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teutonia Ottensen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HT16 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for HT16 and 1.50 for Teutonia Ottensen, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

HT16 win62%

Draw18%

Teutonia Ottensen win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.3%
3–17.4%
1–16.2%
2–26.2%
2–05.5%

Recent form

HT16

2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Sasel · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Süderelbe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinneberg · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hamburg · 0-1 (L)

Teutonia Ottensen

2026-09-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Norderstedt II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tus Dassendorf	10	7	2	1	18	23
2	Paloma	10	7	1	2	9	22
3	Victoria Hamburg	10	5	4	1	7	19
4	Altona 93	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	HT16	10	5	1	4	8	16
6	Pinneberg	10	5	1	4	4	16
7	Buchholz	10	4	3	3	-3	15
8	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	10	4	3	3	-4	15
9	Niendorfer TSV	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	ETSV Hamburg	8	4	1	3	3	13
11	Sasel	10	4	1	5	-3	13
12	Süderelbe	10	3	3	4	1	12
13	HEBC	10	4	0	6	-2	12
14	Nikola Tesla	10	3	2	5	1	11
15	Teutonia Ottensen	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Concordia	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Harksheide	10	1	4	5	-9	7
18	Norderstedt II	9	0	0	9	-23	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is HT16 win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.