Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero · Referee H. Jona · Analysis updated 06:35 UTC
Huachipato vs Cobresal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.50 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Huachipato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Huachipato win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huachipato home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cobresal away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Huachipato
- 2026-10-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs A. Italiano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Limache · 1-3 (L)
Cobresal
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · Huachipato 3-3 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2026-01-31T21:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-1 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2025-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · Huachipato 2-3 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2025-04-19T19:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-1 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2024-08-09T22:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-0 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2024-03-09T21:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 2-1 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2023-07-14T21:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-2 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2023-01-29T15:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 2-1 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2022-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 0-2 Cobresal (Primera División)
- 2022-04-03T19:00:00.000Z · Huachipato 1-0 Cobresal (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 55 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Nublense | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -8 | 35 |
| 8 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -23 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Huachipato win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.