Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Guangdong Mingtu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hubei Chufeng Heli and 1.17 for Guangdong Mingtu, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Hubei Chufeng Heli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hubei Chufeng Heli home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guangdong Mingtu away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hubei Chufeng Heli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Hubei Chufeng Heli and 1.17 for Guangdong Mingtu, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hubei Chufeng Heli win42%

Draw27%

Guangdong Mingtu win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–010.7%
0–19.2%
2–18.7%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Hubei Chufeng Heli

2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Second · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Changchun Xidu · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Langfang Glory City · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Chengdu Rongcheng II · 2-3 (L)

Guangdong Mingtu

2026-09-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Changchun Xidu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Second · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Langfang Glory City · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wuhan Three Towns II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Yichun Grand Tiger · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · Hubei Chufeng Heli 0-0 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)
2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · Hubei Chufeng Heli 2-1 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)
2025-10-25T06:30:00.000Z · Hubei Chufeng Heli 2-1 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)
2025-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · Hubei Chufeng Heli 1-0 Guangdong Mingtu (League Two)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	28	15	5	8	19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	28	15	5	8	13	50
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	15	4	9	14	49
4	Dalian Kewei	27	12	12	3	11	48
5	Shandong Taishan II	27	13	8	6	13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	11	8	8	9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	9	14	5	-4	41
8	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	5	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	10	9	8	6	39
10	Dalian Yingbo B	28	9	12	7	4	39
11	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	11	6	10	4	39
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	8	13	6	8	37
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	7	14	6	4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	6	16	6	-3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	-2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	27	6	13	8	-10	31
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	7	10	11	-17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	-7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	6	9	12	-4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	5	12	11	-14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	5	10	13	-12	25
23	BIT	28	5	10	13	-21	25
24	Shanghai Second	27	2	12	13	-20	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.