Xinhua Road Sports Center · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Shanghai Second Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Hubei Chufeng Heli and 0.96 for Shanghai Second, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Hubei Chufeng Heli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hubei Chufeng Heli home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shanghai Second away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hubei Chufeng Heli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Hubei Chufeng Heli and 0.96 for Shanghai Second, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.4%
- 2–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 59.0% vs market 47.8%, edge +11.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +11.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.1% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 31.4% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.2% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.3% | 30.3% | 3.30 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.6% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.2% | 61.8% | 1.62 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -11.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hubei Chufeng Heli
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Second · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Changchun Xidu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shenzhen 2028 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Langfang Glory City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Chengdu Rongcheng II · 2-3 (L)
Shanghai Second
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Guangdong Mingtu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Guangzhou Dandelion · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Yichun Grand Tiger · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hubei Chufeng Heli · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Guangdong Mingtu · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Xi'an Ronghai | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 49 |
| 4 | Dalian Kewei | 27 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 48 |
| 5 | Shandong Taishan II | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Langfang Glory City | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | -4 | 41 |
| 8 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 40 |
| 9 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 39 |
| 10 | Dalian Yingbo B | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 39 |
| 11 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 39 |
| 12 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 27 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 37 |
| 13 | Xiamen Feilu | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 14 | Guangdong Mingtu | 27 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 15 | Rizhao Yuqi | 28 | 6 | 16 | 6 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Qingdao Red Lions | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -2 | 32 |
| 17 | Changchun Xidu | 27 | 6 | 13 | 8 | -10 | 31 |
| 18 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -17 | 31 |
| 19 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 30 |
| 20 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 27 |
| 21 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | -14 | 27 |
| 22 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -12 | 25 |
| 23 | BIT | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -21 | 25 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 27 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -20 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.