Estadio El Alcoraz · Referee A. Arbaiza · Analysis updated 21:46 UTC
Huesca vs Europa Fc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Huesca and 0.70 for Europa Fc, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Huesca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Huesca win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huesca home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Europa Fc away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Huesca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Huesca and 0.70 for Europa Fc, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 58.9% vs market 54.5%, edge +4.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 54.5% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +4.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.9% | 84.9% | 1.18 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 23.3% | 23.5% | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 61.5% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.80 | 15.3% | 15.0% | 6.67 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 76.4% | 1.31 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.1% | 38.5% | 2.60 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -4.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Huesca
- 2026-10-04T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 2-2 (D)
Europa Fc
- 2026-10-23T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Majadahonda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Algeciras | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Hércules | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Huesca | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Madrid II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Antequera | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 13 | Gimnastic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Juventud Torremolinos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Teruel | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Huesca win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.