Estadio El Alcoraz · Referee P. Mora · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Huesca vs Villarreal II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Huesca and 1.50 for Villarreal II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Villarreal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huesca home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Huesca
- 2026-10-04T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 2-2 (D)
Villarreal II
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · Huesca 0-3 Villarreal II (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-01-28T15:15:00.000Z · Huesca 1-1 Villarreal II (Segunda División)
- 2023-09-16T14:15:00.000Z · Huesca 2-2 Villarreal II (Segunda División)
- 2023-03-26T16:30:00.000Z · Huesca 0-0 Villarreal II (Segunda División)
- 2022-11-05T17:30:00.000Z · Huesca 1-0 Villarreal II (Segunda División)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hercules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.