Huétor Vega vs Marbelli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Huétor Vega and 1.08 for Marbelli, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Huétor Vega the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Huétor Vega home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marbelli away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Huétor Vega to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Huétor Vega and 1.08 for Marbelli, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Huétor Vega win39%

Draw29%

Marbelli win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–012.3%
0–111.1%
0–010.3%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Huétor Vega

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mancha Real · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Armilla · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marbelli · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Melilla · 0-3 (L)

Marbelli

2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huétor Vega · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mancha Real · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Melilla	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Arenas Armilla	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Almería II	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Marbelli	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	Motril	6	3	3	0	4	12
6	Málaga II	6	3	1	2	6	10
7	Granada II	6	3	1	2	4	10
8	Churriana Vega	6	3	0	3	3	9
9	UD San Pedro	6	3	0	3	-3	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Torre del Mar	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Alhaurino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Porcuna	6	2	1	3	-8	7
14	Huétor Vega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Atletico de Marbella	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Cantoria	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Mancha Real	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Malaga City	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.