MKM Stadium · Analysis updated 00:23 UTC
Hull City U21 vs Bolton Wanderers Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Hull City U21 and 1.86 for Bolton Wanderers Res., a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Bolton Wanderers Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hull City U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton Wanderers Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolton Wanderers Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Hull City U21 and 1.86 for Bolton Wanderers Res., a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 3.10 | 30.0% | 32.8% | 3.05 | +2.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.9% | 55.6% | 1.80 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 33.1% | 33.3% | 3.00 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.3% | 22.3% | 4.48 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 44.6% | 44.4% | 2.25 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.4% | 66.7% | 1.50 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.7% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 70.0% | 67.2% | 1.49 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hull City U21
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolton Wanderers Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 3-3 (D)
Bolton Wanderers Res.
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · Hull City U21 1-2 Bolton Wanderers Res. (Professional Development League)
Professional Development League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Coventry City U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sheffield United U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Bristol City U21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Swansea City U21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Barnsley U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Peterborough United U21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Colchester United U21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.