Hull City vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Hull City and 1.28 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hull City home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Hull City win33%

Draw28%

Brentford win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.6%
1–010.2%
0–09.1%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Hull City

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-0 (D)

Brentford

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2020-02-01T12:30:00.000Z · Hull City 1-5 Brentford (Championship)
2019-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Brentford (Championship)
2019-02-23T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-5 Brentford (Championship)
2018-12-15T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 2-0 Brentford (Championship)
2018-05-06T11:30:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Brentford (Championship)
2017-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 3-2 Brentford (Championship)
2016-04-26T18:45:00.000Z · Hull City 2-0 Brentford (Championship)
2015-11-03T19:45:00.000Z · Hull City 2-0 Brentford (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.