Hull City vs Coventry Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hull City and 0.85 for Coventry, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Hull City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Hull City win

59.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.77 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hull City home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Coventry away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Hull City win59%

Draw23%

Coventry win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.8%
2–011.4%
1–110.9%
2–19.7%
0–07.2%

Recent form

Hull City

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-0 (D)

Coventry

2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Hull City 0-0 Coventry (Championship)
2025-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · Hull City 0-0 Coventry (Championship)
2025-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Coventry (Championship)
2024-12-14T12:30:00.000Z · Hull City 1-2 Coventry (Championship)
2024-04-24T18:45:00.000Z · Hull City 3-2 Coventry (Championship)
2023-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Coventry (Championship)
2023-03-11T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Coventry (Championship)
2022-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 3-2 Coventry (Championship)
2022-03-16T19:45:00.000Z · Hull City 2-0 Coventry (Championship)
2021-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 0-1 Coventry (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hull City win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.