Hull City vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hull City and 0.92 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Hull City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Hull City win

59.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.87 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hull City home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Hull City win60%

Draw22%

Sunderland win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.5%
2–010.7%
1–110.6%
2–19.9%
3–06.7%

Recent form

Hull City

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-0 (D)

Sunderland

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-02-22T12:30:00.000Z · Hull City 1-0 Sunderland (Championship)
2024-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · Hull City 0-1 Sunderland (Championship)
2024-01-19T20:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-0 Sunderland (Championship)
2023-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 0-1 Sunderland (Championship)
2023-04-07T16:30:00.000Z · Hull City 4-4 Sunderland (Championship)
2022-12-17T15:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Sunderland (Championship)
2021-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · Hull City 1-2 Sunderland (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-04-20T18:45:00.000Z · Hull City 2-2 Sunderland (League One)
2021-01-09T19:45:00.000Z · Hull City 1-1 Sunderland (League One)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hull City win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.